Bobby Abreu

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Bobby Abreu

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Bobby Abreu

Five facts about Bobby Abreu:

Bobby Abreu was a two-time All-Star (in 2004 and 2005). He received MVP votes seven times, with a high finish of 12th in 2009.

Abreu won a Silver Slugger in 2004 and a Gold Glove in 2005.

Abreu led his league in games played twice (in 2001 and 2005). He played 150 or more games in a season 13 consecutive seasons from 1998 through 2010.

Abreu led the National League in doubles in 2002 with 50 and in triples in 1999 with 11. He led MLB in walks in 2006 with 124 when he split time between the two leagues.

Abreu had a career batting line of .291/.395/.475. His .395 on-base percentage is the 25th-highest since 1947 among players with at least 5,000 plate appearances (Abreu had 10,081 career plate appearances). Abreu's 1,476 career walks are 20th in MLB history; his 3,979 times on base are 49th in MLB history.

The first two tables below present Bobby Abreu's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1996	HOU	22	14	0.5	0.6	-0.1	-0.1
1997	HOU	23	58	5.7	5.8	0.1	-0.4
1998	PHI	24	151	18.7	14.8	4.4	2.7
1999	PHI	25	152	21.5	16.6	5.2	3.4
2000	PHI	26	154	22.9	19.1	4.5	2.5
2001	PHI	27	162	23.3	19.0	5.0	2.9
2002	PHI	28	157	21.3	16.8	5.2	3.3
2003	PHI	29	158	23.4	18.1	5.9	3.9
2004	PHI	30	159	22.9	18.7	5.1	3.0
2005	PHI	31	162	23.1	18.3	5.5	3.6
+– 2006		32	156	22.7	18.0	5.7	3.8
	NYA		58	9.2	6.7	3.0	2.3
	PHI		98	13.5	11.3	2.7	1.5
2007	NYA	33	158	20.3	18.8	2.4	0.6
2008	NYA	34	156	21.5	19.3	3.3	1.4
2009	ANA	35	152	19.9	18.7	2.3	0.4
2010	ANA	36	154	18.4	17.9	1.5	-0.2
2011	ANA	37	142	12.4	11.4	2.0	0.5
+– 2012		38	99	7.5	7.9	0.2	-0.7
	ANA		8	0.8	1.2	-0.4	-0.5
	LAN		91	6.7	6.7	0.5	-0.2
2013	-	39	-	-	-	-	-
2014	NYN	40	75	3.6	4.3	-0.4	-0.9
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,419	309.4	264.0	57.9	29.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			20	2.3	2.0	0.4	0.2
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,439	311.7	266.0	58.3	29.8

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1996	HOU	22	14	0.5	0.6	-0.1	-0.2
1997	HOU	23	58	5.9	5.6	0.4	-0.1
1998	PHI	24	151	18.4	15.0	4.0	2.3
1999	PHI	25	152	21.7	16.4	5.8	3.9
2000	PHI	26	154	23.4	18.6	5.5	3.5
2001	PHI	27	162	23.3	19.0	4.7	2.6
2002	PHI	28	157	21.6	16.5	5.9	4.0
2003	PHI	29	158	23.0	18.5	5.1	3.1
2004	PHI	30	159	23.2	18.4	5.6	3.5
2005	PHI	31	162	22.5	18.8	4.3	2.4
+– 2006		32	156	22.0	18.6	4.3	2.4
	NYA		58	8.7	7.2	1.9	1.1
	PHI		98	13.4	11.4	2.5	1.3
2007	NYA	33	158	19.9	19.2	1.7	-0.2
2008	NYA	34	156	21.5	19.2	3.4	1.5
2009	ANA	35	152	19.6	18.9	1.9	0.0
2010	ANA	36	154	18.4	17.9	1.5	-0.3
2011	ANA	37	142	11.9	11.9	1.0	-0.5
+– 2012		38	99	7.4	8.1	-0.2	-1.0
	ANA		8	0.7	1.2	-0.5	-0.6
	LAN		91	6.6	6.8	0.3	-0.4
2013	-	39	-	-	-	-	-
2014	NYN	40	75	3.8	4.1	0.0	-0.4
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,419	308.0	265.4	54.7	26.4
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			20	2.1	2.2	0.0	-0.2
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,439	310.1	267.6	54.7	26.2

This is Bobby Abreu's first year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot.

Vote Prediction

I think Bobby Abreu is probably one of only three players debuting on the BBWAA Hall-of-Fame ballot with a chance to receive enough votes to make a second ballot. Abreu has a reasonable Hall-of-Fame case, which I will essentially make below. But it's not an overwhelming case: it's a somewhat subtle case, and it's a somewhat narrow case.

Bobby Abreu's Hall-of-Fame case is basically strongest among sabermetrically-inclined voters (e.g., those who would look at WAR in putting together their ballots) who evaluate Hall-of-Fame worthiness purely on the basis of career counting stats. That is, Bobby Abreu was very good for a fairly long time. But his value was in large part in more subtle skills - e.g., walks and on-base percentage - and less on, say, the Triple Crown stats (.291/288/1,363 for Abreu in his career, which works out to a 162-game average of .291/19/91). Basically, I'm fairly sure that Bobby Abreu fails the "feels like a Hall-of-Famer" test for most voters (and, I assume, most fans in general).

Now, to be clear, the "feels like a Hall-of-Famer" test is one of the poorer ways to choose Hall-of-Famers. Lots of deserving players fail this test - e.g., Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker, from this year's Modern Era Committee Hall-of-Fame ballot. And plenty of guys who definitely "felt like a Hall-of-Famer" don't look like Hall-of-Famers upon closer examination (e.g., Steve Garvey, who is on the same ballot as Evans and Whitaker). But "feels like a Hall-of-Famer" matters in voting, especially in a player's first year, where I suspect some voters don't look as closely at all of the first-year names as they probably should.

So where does this leave Bobby Abreu? My guess: not doing so well. To pick one contemporary of Abreu's (not entirely randomly), Jim Edmonds probably had similar "Hall-of-Fame" markers to Bobby Abreu on his resume, perhaps even a little better. Edmonds made 4 All-Star teams, won 8 Gold Gloves, and received MVP votes 6 times (with two top-5 finishes). The corresponding numbers for Abreu were 2, 1, and 7 (with no top-10 finishes). Edmonds debuted on the ballot four years ago. He got 11 votes, good for 2.5% - exactly half as many as he needed to stay on the ballot. That was a more crowded ballot than this year's. And one could perhaps make a weak case that Abreu was better (he had one more All-Star appearance, got MVP votes one more time, he had 500+ more hits), although I think I'd prefer Edmonds: for example, moving beyond my Player won-lost records, Edmonds beats Abreu in rWAR (Baseball-Reference's WAR), 60.4 - 60.0, and in fWAR (Fangraphs's WAR) 64.5 to 59.8.

This year's ballot is less crowded than when Edmonds debuted. And I suspect the electorate is a bit more open to sabermetric statistics. So, Abreu will probably do better than Edmonds. Maybe even twice as good - which would be good enough to stick around for a second ballot. Forced to pick a number, I think I'll go with 5.5% for Abreu - enough to stay on the ballot, but barely.

Player Won-Lost Records and Bobby Abreu

Player wins (pWins or eWins) are on approximately the same scale as pitcher wins: i.e., 20 wins is an excellent season total; 300 is an elite career total. Player wins vary by position - outfielders tend to earn more than infielders and pitchers - and I think it's probably generally best to try to put wins in a context that also considers losses and a player's position(s). But still, the object of the game is to win and pWins, in particular, tie directly to team wins.

Bobby Abreu was incredibly durable, playing 150+ games for thirteen consecutive seasons. He also was an outfielder - and outfielders tend to accumulate a few more Player wins (and losses) than players at other positions. And, most importantly, Bobby Abreu was very good. Put it all together, and Abreu had 20 or more pWins 10 times in his career and accumulated 309.4 career pWins.

The next table shows every player who had at least ten 20-pWin seasons in his career. This article then concludes with all players who have earned at least 300 career pWins since MLB integration (i.e., since 1947).

Player	# of 20-pWin Seasons	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL

Players With 10 or More 20-pWin Seasons
		Career Player Won-Lost Record
Hank Aaron	16	496.7	369.1	98.5	142.5
Barry Bonds	15	466.8	310.6	136.5	174.4
Willie Mays	14	465.3	329.8	116.5	156.6
Mel Ott	13	419.7	295.2	103.6	140.8
Derek Jeter	12	367.7	323.1	61.2	94.8
Mickey Mantle	12	354.1	227.5	112.2	141.9
Stan Musial	12	424.1	311.3	88.2	126.2
Mike Schmidt	12	338.5	257.6	71.0	99.7
Dave Winfield	12	397.3	339.8	38.7	75.5
Indian Bob Johnson	11	275.1	239.2	21.0	47.6
Cal Ripken	11	382.3	351.6	49.2	84.5
Frank Robinson	11	398.0	302.5	70.9	106.8
Alex Rodriguez	11	373.8	298.7	81.2	114.9
Pete Rose Sr.	11	439.3	394.7	23.6	64.5
Paul Waner	11	363.4	303.7	36.2	70.9
Billy Williams	11	332.4	278.2	31.2	62.1
Bobby Abreu	10	309.4	264.0	29.6	57.9
Lou Brock	10	347.6	328.7	-7.4	26.1
Roberto Clemente	10	357.0	295.1	37.8	70.5
Andre Dawson	10	350.4	309.7	22.8	55.1
Joe DiMaggio	10	287.1	193.1	84.5	109.4
Eddie Mathews	10	320.7	240.9	70.5	99.1
Minnie Minoso	10	265.9	211.6	38.1	62.7
Sammy Sosa	10	316.6	277.5	20.7	50.1
Ichiro Suzuki	10	312.4	302.4	-2.5	27.5
Ted Williams	10	373.0	250.0	104.3	136.6
Carl Yastrzemski	10	430.9	360.2	45.5	85.7

		300 pGame Winners, since 1947

	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Hank Aaron	496.7	369.1	98.5	142.5
2	Barry Bonds	466.8	310.6	136.5	174.4
3	Willie Mays	465.3	329.8	116.5	156.6
4	Pete Rose Sr.	439.3	394.7	23.6	64.5
5	Carl Yastrzemski	430.9	360.2	45.5	85.7
6	Rickey Henderson	428.4	350.3	62.5	100.5
7	Frank Robinson	398.0	302.5	70.9	106.8
8	Dave Winfield	397.3	339.8	38.7	75.5
9	Cal Ripken	382.3	351.6	49.2	84.5
10	Al Kaline	380.5	299.2	58.6	93.2
11	Alex Rodriguez	373.8	298.7	81.2	114.9
12	Joe L. Morgan	371.9	293.9	84.9	117.6
13	Reggie Jackson	370.0	295.8	58.4	92.6
14	Derek Jeter	367.7	323.1	61.2	94.8
15	Robin Yount	366.7	345.7	31.9	66.5
16	Albert Pujols	359.9	267.3	71.8	104.3
17	Adrian Beltre	358.5	318.3	35.3	68.5
18	Craig Biggio	357.7	325.7	34.0	67.3
19	Roberto Clemente	357.0	295.1	37.8	70.5
20	Nolan Ryan	354.6	329.6	38.1	81.0
21	Mickey Mantle	354.1	227.5	112.2	141.9
22	Brooks Robinson	352.3	310.6	32.0	64.9
23	Andre Dawson	350.4	309.7	22.8	55.1
24	Lou Brock	347.6	328.7	-7.4	26.1
25	Eddie Murray	346.7	285.5	38.6	70.7
26	Gary Sheffield	343.2	288.0	41.0	72.7
27	Warren Spahn	342.7	287.4	74.3	113.8
28	Ken Griffey Jr.	342.1	297.2	38.3	69.8
29	Mike Schmidt	338.5	257.6	71.0	99.7
30	Chipper Jones	336.2	257.6	69.6	98.6
31	Steve Carlton	335.6	305.9	49.2	86.9
32	Ozzie Smith	333.3	312.5	35.6	66.5
33	Billy Williams	332.4	278.2	31.2	62.1
34	Carlos Beltran	331.4	290.0	32.4	63.6
35	Dwight Evans	330.1	271.9	45.6	75.3
36	Luis Aparicio	329.9	328.1	17.5	50.3
37	Phil Niekro	329.1	322.8	25.2	64.8
38	George Brett	327.7	275.9	44.4	74.9
39	Greg Maddux	327.2	271.7	77.9	115.0
40	Vada Pinson	325.7	297.4	9.7	40.7
41	Rusty Staub	325.0	306.0	-1.9	30.8
42	Stan Musial	324.9	247.7	88.2	126.2
43	Eddie Mathews	320.7	240.9	70.5	99.1
44	Omar Vizquel	320.2	337.6	-0.3	31.6
45	Manny Ramirez	320.0	247.6	60.2	88.9
46	Tony Gwynn Sr.	319.4	286.1	12.4	41.5
47	Luis 'Gonzo' Gonzalez	318.7	290.0	9.9	39.6
48	Don Sutton	318.6	297.3	38.4	75.6
49	Roger Clemens	316.9	228.6	94.6	131.3
50	Paul Molitor	316.7	273.4	38.3	70.6
51	Sammy Sosa	316.6	277.5	20.7	50.1
52	Dave Parker	315.6	273.4	24.1	53.9
53	Gaylord Perry	315.6	290.2	38.2	76.1
54	Tim Raines Sr.	315.4	273.3	27.3	56.1
55	Ichiro Suzuki	312.4	302.4	-2.5	27.5
56	Roberto Alomar	312.3	283.2	36.4	65.4
57	Steve Finley	310.8	289.1	12.1	41.4
58	Ernie Banks	310.5	279.6	21.2	51.0
59	Graig Nettles	309.5	270.9	33.4	61.8
60	Bobby Abreu	309.4	264.0	29.6	57.9
61	Rafael Palmeiro	309.1	267.4	20.4	49.9
62	Tony Perez	307.1	256.0	31.1	59.1
63	Tom Seaver	306.9	258.2	65.1	98.6
64	Willie Davis	306.7	274.7	16.1	45.0
65	Torii Hunter	305.7	289.8	9.9	39.1
66	Lou Whitaker	303.8	262.6	51.2	78.5
67	Darrell Evans	303.5	259.5	31.6	59.5
68	Jeff Kent	301.3	266.1	36.3	63.9
69	Harmon Killebrew	301.1	235.0	48.5	75.7
70	Miguel Cabrera	300.3	243.1	43.8	70.5

Article last updated: November 18, 2019

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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